Overview
This Regional Analysis of the Syria Conflict (RAS) is an update of the May RAS. The RAS seeks to bring together information from all sources in the region and provide a coherent analysis of the overall situation in the region as well as in each of the affected countries. While Part I focuses on the situation within Syria, Part II covers the impact of the crisis on the neighbouring countries.
The Syria Needs Analysis Project welcomes all information that could complement this report.
For additional information, comments or questions, please email SNAP@ACAPS.org.
Conflict: The strategic town of Qusair in Homs was re-taken on 5 June by Government forces supported by Hezbollah. Spurred by this victory they are now focusing on re-taking the city of Aleppo, although this is a far greater task and is likely to prove a more protracted fight. Meanwhile the influence of foreign fighters is growing with both Government and opposition forces receiving increasing support from non-Syrian combatants The conflict is set to intensify following a decision by several countries at the recent Friends of Syria meeting in Doha to give military support to the opposition and the postponement of the Russia/US sponsored peace talks (Geneva 2).
Humanitarian concerns: There is no new estimate of the number of people in need inside Syria (which stood at 6.8 million in April) but the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate while access is becoming increasingly difficult in many areas. Food security remains a priority concern for many as there is insufficient subsidised bread and unsubsidised foods are unaffordable to many. With many health facilities damaged; a lack of staff; and serious shortage of medicines and medical supplies huge health needs exist especially for those with chronic illnesses. Significantly lower vaccination coverage since 2011; high levels of displacement; disrupted water supply; deteriorating sanitation and solid waste removal systems create conditions for the spread of communicable disease: a measles outbreak has been identified in northern governorates. Conditions for many refugees also remain concerning. Despite the construction of new camps in Iraq, Jordan and Turkey to relieve the pressure on existing camps and host communities, shelter will likely remain insufficient. High rents for urban refugees, especially in Lebanon where refugees now constitute 50% of the population in some areas, force people into substandard shelter or tents. The Lebanese health system is struggling to cope with the increased caseload caused by the refugee influx while health subsidies for Syrians have been reduced further limiting access. Little information is available on the WASH situation for refugees, but it can be presumed that with the critical overcrowding in camps and the hot summer months, access to sufficient water will become of increasing concern. Poor solid waste removal systems and a lack of access to hygiene items will lead to sanitation and hygiene issues.
Displacement: At least 6.5 million Syrians have been displaced by the current unrest, almost 30% of the pre-crisis population. Over 5 million of these are estimated to be displaced in Syria, including 235,000 (50%) of the Palestinian refugees in Syria. Meanwhile, over 1.6 million Syrians are registered or awaiting registration with UNHCR in neighbouring countries: this number is expected to rise to 3.4 million by December. While significant numbers of refugees continue to flee Syria, the rate of return is increasing, particularly from Jordan and Iraq. Reasons for return include: a lessening in the conflict in their areas of origin; dissatisfaction with life in host countries; or to check on property. Some return to join the conflict. Settlement in their place of origin is hampered by on-going insecurity, widespread infrastructural damage and continuing lack of access to services.
Spill over into neighbouring countries: Tensions in Lebanon have escalated in June, with recent clashes in Saida triggering renewed fighting in Tripoli, small scale demonstrations and roadblocks across the country. Both the Syrian Armed Forces and opposition groups have targeted communities in the Bekaa border region of Lebanon.
Funding: June witnessed the launch of two UN humanitarian appeals: the Syrian Humanitarian Response Plan (SHARP) and Regional Response Plan 5 (RRP). The SHARP requests over USD 1.4 billion to provide assistance to 6.8 million people in need until the end of December 2013. The Regional Response Plan 5 foresees an continuing influx and requests USD 3.8 to support over 3.45 million registered refugees by December 2013.
Information gaps: Lack of recent information on the humanitarian situation in central and southern governorates persists. Throughout the region, there is limited information on the status of refugees living in urban communities and of the host communities impacted by the crisis.
Possible developments: The increased influx of weapons on both sides and growing involvement of foreign fighters will prolong the conflict, aggravate the humanitarian crisis and further disrupt humanitarian assistance.
The expected SAF offensive against Aleppo city will cause a further deterioration of the current situation and cause further displacement of both residents and those who sought refuge in the city from other areas. However much of this displacement is likely to be short-distance and temporary.
The WASH situation both in both Syria and refugee-hosting countries will further deteriorate impacting the already poor health situation. All risk factors to enhance the transmission of communicable diseases are present and a number of public health risks including hepatitis, typhoid and dysentery are of major concern. WHO have stated that outbreaks are inevitable.